Which Election Is It?

History has a way of repeating itself. What I can't figure out is which election this is a repeat of.

In 1964, a feisty Southwestern conservative beat out a a liberal New Yorker and a moderate named Romney for the Republican nomination. No, it's true. Really!

The parallels seem too perfect. Giuliani plays the role of Nelson Rockefeller. Mitt Romney gets to play his own dad (every actor's dream role), and you get to decide who gets to play Barry Goldwater. Some suggest John McCain for the role, and as a sitting Arizona senator with a gruff exterior, he seems natural, but I think Ron Paul has the out-of-the-mainstream conservative thing down better, and therefore is a better representative of what Goldwater represented. Anyway, Barry Goldwater, Jr. has been helping Ron Paul with fundraising, so it seems a better fit. Regardless, it's easy to see how these characters could bring up reminiscences of 1964.

And yet, even with so many of the characters in place for a repeat, I can't quite believe it's going to happen that way.

The reason is that this isn't 1964. Economically and emotionally, we're as far from 1964 as imaginable. This is 1976. In 1976, people were worried about gasoline prices and the housing market, were recovering from political scandals, were war-weary, and were desperately seeking change. Sound familiar? Yet, the Republicans, the party in power at the time, didn't get that, and nominated the man who least resembled real change, Gerald Ford. Also, a similar tune to what I hear from the party regulars. "Stay the course" is the mantra heard most often in the Republican debates. For while most of the nominees didn't want to be too closely associated with George W. Bush, few had any significant differences with his policies.

So, what happens when we put 1964 candidates into a 1976 environment? Ah, that's the question isn't it. No one really knows. Throw in a little 2004 Howard Dean internet and our view of the outcome becomes even more cloudy.

This might be another election where a "stay the course" candidate like Gerald Ford is put up against an unexpected upstart like Jimmy Carter (played by Barack Obama? Bill Richardson?). Or it may not. It may be John McCain's year. Or it may not. It may be a "perfect storm" kind of year for an outlier like Ron Paul. Or it may not.

The only thing we know for certain is that this will be a nail-biter. It's an election with weighty issues and strong differences of opinion nationwide. And the nation hasn't yet decided. One thing I do know: "stay the course" is not likely to get anyone to the White House.